AI Will Create More Jobs Than It Destroys. But 11 Million Workers Still Need Help.
New research shows the U.S. will have more jobs by 2035 than it has today, but millions of workers will need to switch careers to find them. This matters to you because the shift will touch almost every type of job, and the path forward is not always easy.
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What the research found
The study comes from McKinsey. It says the economy is growing, but the kinds of jobs available will change a lot. That means many people will need new skills or new certificates to keep working.
About 11 million Americans may need to leave a shrinking job and move into a completely different one. On average, 770,000 workers a year will need to switch job types over the next ten years. That is 3.6 times higher than the normal rate of job switching seen in the past.
This kind of shift happened before, during COVID-19. But that surge only lasted a year or two. This time, the researchers say it will last at least a decade.
Three examples show how hard the switch can be
The office and administrative support field will see the biggest job losses by 2035. The research says automation could take over 80 percent of the hours currently worked in these jobs.
Take an administrative assistant. They already have about 58 percent of the skills needed to become a project manager, a growing job with better pay. The problem is many project manager jobs require a four-year degree and a professional certificate. That means years of schooling and real money spent before the switch pays off.
A dishwasher hoping to become a home health aide faces a tougher road. They only have about 20 percent of the needed skills. They would need to learn how to help patients and check vital signs, plus finish a month of training. Many employers also want a nursing assistant certificate, which takes even longer. On top of that, 92 percent of healthcare support jobs fall into the bottom two pay levels, so the reward may be small.
A packager moving into production fabrication has an easier shot. About 52 percent of their skills, like lifting and running equipment, carry over. There is no required certificate, and the job pays more. But they would still need training in tasks like mechanical assembly and quality checks.
Why credentials are the biggest roadblock
The research says 85 percent of growing jobs require some kind of credential. Only 38 percent of those are required by law, often in fields involving safety. The other 47 percent are simply what employers prefer, not what the law demands.
That means nearly half of the credential problem is really just a hiring habit, not a safety rule. Habits can change faster than laws can.
Money is also a big barrier. Even short training programs can be out of reach for workers who cannot afford to go without pay for months. A single parent or someone with little savings may skip a program that would pay off later, simply because they cannot survive the wait.
What this means for you
- If your job involves routine office or administrative tasks, expect more competition for those roles in the next ten years.
- Look into which of your current skills might transfer to a growing field, even if the full switch feels far away.
- Watch for employers or training programs that drop unnecessary degree requirements, since this opens doors faster.
- Ask local colleges or job training centers if they offer "stackable" credentials, meaning short courses that build toward a bigger one over time.
The research also found that job postings asking for AI skills have jumped elevenfold since 2022. Postings asking for adaptability rose fivefold, and those asking for resilience and curiosity rose threefold. More than 70 percent of workers will need to learn new skills even if they stay with the same employer.
Employers, schools, and government all have a role to play here. Companies can hire based on skills instead of degrees. States can simplify licensing rules. Governments can offer tax breaks to support retraining.
Your next step: take a look at your own job skills and compare them to a growing field you might be interested in. Many training programs now list what their graduates typically earn, so you can see if the switch is worth the time and cost before you commit.
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Source: Fortune
